El Niño is officially here, and will be among the strongest ever recorded, NOAA announces
Live Science, Ben Turner, June 2026
It's official: El Niño is shaping up to be among the strongest ever recorded.
The natural climate cycle, which supercharges temperatures and shifts weather patterns across the planet, officially took hold over the past month, according to a June 11 update by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center.
What's more, an accompanying average of various forecasting models gives a "63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950," NOAA officials wrote in the update.
That prediction is increasingly shared by the world's best climate models, with about 75% of them now forecasting a record-breaking surge of at least 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit (2.5 degrees Celsius) above average sea surface temperatures across key parts of the Pacific Ocean, according to Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service, with other model scenarios climbing as high as 7.2 F (4 C).
'One of the most rapid transitions that I've seen': NOAA forecaster on how this year's El Niño could shatter records
For reference, the past two strongest recorded El Niño events (2015-2016 and 1997-1998) sent ocean temperatures to 4.1 F (2.3 C) above average in the Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperatures across a key region of the Pacific Ocean.
What is El Niño?
El Niño events occur every two to seven years as part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) natural climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean. The ENSO cycle flips between the warmer El Niño phase and the cooler La Niña phase, with neutral periods in between. El Niño periods bring elevated sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, thereby weakening or reversing trade winds and strongly disrupting global temperatures and rainfall patterns.
Earth's last El Niño ran from June 2023 to April 2024, delivering an injection of heat to our already-warming world that made 2024 the hottest year on record. That year was also the first to breach the 1.5 C (2.7 F) warming limit — a key guardrail set by the Paris Agreement, beyond which the effects of climate change are predicted to become increasingly disastrous.
The current El Niño will also raise global temperatures this year and next, making it likely that Earth will reach, or even surpass, those previous records.
Now that El Niño's onset is official, scientists can advise people around the world on how to prepare. The impacts of this extra burst of heat stand to be profound, with studies linking previous El Niño periods to famine in Europe; civil wars in tropical regions; and droughts, floods and forest fires around the world. This year's El Niño will arrive during a period of already-increased global food insecurity driven by the Iran war.
And while El Niño would have occurred regardless, scientists are seeing signs that this El Niño's quicker-than-expected onset was driven by humanity's warming of the planet.


















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